Opinion Poll by Forsa, 8–14 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.1–17.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.3–10.8% | 9.1–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.4–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.4–2.0% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 9% | 89% | |
| 23 | 71% | 80% | Median |
| 24 | 8% | 9% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 95% | |
| 16 | 23% | 89% | |
| 17 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 18 | 45% | 46% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 55% | 80% | Median |
| 16 | 25% | 25% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 70% | 98% | Median |
| 10 | 27% | 28% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 58% | 99.8% | Median |
| 7 | 36% | 42% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 22% | 98% | |
| 7 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 14% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 34% | 34% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–33 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 56% | 88% | |
| 31 | 17% | 32% | Median |
| 32 | 9% | 15% | |
| 33 | 6% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 95% | |
| 16 | 23% | 89% | |
| 17 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 18 | 45% | 46% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 55% | 80% | Median |
| 16 | 25% | 25% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 46% | |
| 9 | 22% | 22% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 60% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 34% | 35% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2501
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.12%