Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 15–17 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.4–26.7% | 22.0–27.1% | 21.3–28.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.2–21.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.6–12.7% | 9.3–13.0% | 8.8–13.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 8% | 100% | |
| 22 | 29% | 92% | |
| 23 | 11% | 62% | |
| 24 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 25 | 13% | 14% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 26% | 95% | |
| 18 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 30% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 38% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 6% | 61% | |
| 15 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 48% | |
| 17 | 4% | 41% | |
| 18 | 37% | 37% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 37% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 18% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 42% | 97% | |
| 8 | 38% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 18% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 37% | 100% | |
| 6 | 43% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 19% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 100% | |
| 4 | 48% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 72% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 45% | 100% | |
| 2 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 19% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 33% | 92% | |
| 30 | 41% | 59% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 18% | Median |
| 32 | 0.4% | 17% | |
| 33 | 15% | 17% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 26% | 95% | |
| 18 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 30% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 38% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 6% | 61% | |
| 15 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 48% | |
| 17 | 4% | 41% | |
| 18 | 37% | 37% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 44% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 37% | 56% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 19% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 93% | |
| 5 | 8% | 38% | Median |
| 6 | 30% | 30% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1099
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.37%