Opinion Poll by Verian, 23–29 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 25.3% 23.9–26.8% 23.5–27.2% 23.1–27.6% 22.4–28.3%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.1% 5.2–8.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 25 23–25 22–27 22–27 20–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–13 9–13 9–13 8–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 8 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.9% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.1%  
22 5% 98%  
23 22% 93%  
24 18% 71%  
25 44% 53% Median
26 3% 9%  
27 7% 7%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 7% 100%  
15 7% 93%  
16 56% 85% Median
17 8% 29%  
18 19% 21%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.9%  
14 32% 98.5%  
15 48% 66% Median
16 9% 18%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 6% 99.1%  
10 41% 94%  
11 34% 52% Median
12 1.5% 18%  
13 17% 17%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 8% 99.9%  
7 16% 92%  
8 70% 77% Median
9 5% 7%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 22% 100%  
6 15% 78%  
7 59% 63% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 51% 100% Median
3 47% 49%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 30% 99.9%  
3 57% 70% Median
4 12% 13%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 21% 100%  
2 75% 79% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 88% 90% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 60% 100% Median
2 39% 40%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 72% 99.4% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 31 0% 30–32 29–33 29–33 26–35
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 9 0% 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.9% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.1%  
28 1.0% 99.1%  
29 3% 98%  
30 39% 95%  
31 10% 56%  
32 37% 46% Median
33 8% 9%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 7% 100%  
15 7% 93%  
16 56% 85% Median
17 8% 29%  
18 19% 21%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.9%  
14 32% 98.5%  
15 48% 66% Median
16 9% 18%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 7% 99.9%  
8 14% 93%  
9 38% 78% Median
10 36% 40%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.1% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 48% 99.3%  
5 37% 51% Median
6 12% 14%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations