Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 28–30 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.9% | 25.3–28.5% | 24.9–28.9% | 24.5–29.3% | 23.8–30.1% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.5–19.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.1–18.0% | 13.5–18.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 9.0–13.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.3–8.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.5–9.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.5–7.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–3.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 25–26 | 25–27 | 25–27 | 23–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 44% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 27 | 9% | 9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 31% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 18% | 69% | |
| 17 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 42% | 42% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 48% | |
| 17 | 32% | 32% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 57% | 99.5% | Median |
| 11 | 35% | 43% | |
| 12 | 8% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 86% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 45% | 47% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 39% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 55% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 19% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 40% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–34 | 31–34 | 31–34 | 31–36 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 42% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 58% | |
| 33 | 32% | 56% | Median |
| 34 | 22% | 24% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 31% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 18% | 69% | |
| 17 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 42% | 42% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 48% | |
| 17 | 32% | 32% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 21% | 95% | |
| 8 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 47% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 45% | 46% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1333
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.98%