Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 7 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.9% | 25.2–28.7% | 24.7–29.2% | 24.3–29.6% | 23.5–30.5% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.2–21.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.2–19.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.4–8.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 22–31 | 22–31 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 97% | |
| 24 | 39% | 95% | |
| 25 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 26 | 18% | 39% | |
| 27 | 5% | 22% | |
| 28 | 12% | 16% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 15% | 97% | |
| 16 | 12% | 82% | |
| 17 | 19% | 70% | |
| 18 | 42% | 50% | Median |
| 19 | 8% | 9% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 20% | 96% | |
| 15 | 35% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 35% | 41% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 13% | 89% | |
| 11 | 39% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 38% | |
| 13 | 14% | 15% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 58% | 77% | Median |
| 8 | 17% | 19% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 100% | |
| 5 | 42% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 29% | 41% | |
| 7 | 2% | 12% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 95% | |
| 5 | 52% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 40% | 40% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 100% | |
| 2 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 41% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–39 | 29–39 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 5% | 96% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 32 | 39% | 90% | |
| 33 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 34 | 19% | 44% | |
| 35 | 14% | 26% | |
| 36 | 7% | 11% | |
| 37 | 0% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 39 | 4% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 15% | 97% | |
| 16 | 12% | 82% | |
| 17 | 19% | 70% | |
| 18 | 42% | 50% | Median |
| 19 | 8% | 9% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 20% | 96% | |
| 15 | 35% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 35% | 41% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 17% | 100% | |
| 6 | 49% | 83% | Median |
| 7 | 22% | 35% | |
| 8 | 2% | 12% | |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 31% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 55% | 63% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1065
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%