Opinion Poll by Verian, 20–26 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.8–26.8% | 23.4–27.2% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.4–28.3% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.8% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.9–16.3% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.7–17.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.9–14.2% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.3–14.8% | 10.8–15.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.6–7.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 31% | 98% | |
| 23 | 14% | 67% | |
| 24 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 25 | 8% | 32% | |
| 26 | 13% | 24% | |
| 27 | 11% | 11% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 89% | |
| 17 | 16% | 79% | |
| 18 | 12% | 63% | |
| 19 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 10% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 25% | 97% | |
| 14 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 47% | |
| 16 | 30% | 32% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 11 | 24% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 13 | 9% | 44% | |
| 14 | 35% | 35% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 39% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 32% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 29% | |
| 8 | 12% | 15% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 98% | |
| 6 | 53% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 97% | |
| 4 | 59% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 86% | Median |
| 4 | 27% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 48% | |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 40% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 35% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 27–33 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 27–35 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 26% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 74% | |
| 29 | 12% | 72% | |
| 30 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 51% | |
| 32 | 13% | 40% | |
| 33 | 18% | 27% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 89% | |
| 17 | 16% | 79% | |
| 18 | 12% | 63% | |
| 19 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 10% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 25% | 97% | |
| 14 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 47% | |
| 16 | 30% | 32% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 98% | |
| 7 | 27% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 34% | 39% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 14% | 100% | |
| 5 | 40% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 46% | |
| 7 | 10% | 19% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–26 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1432
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.51%