Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–29 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.8–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.4–16.8% | 13.1–17.1% | 12.5–17.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.7–15.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.2–10.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 14–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 25% | 98.6% | |
| 23 | 3% | 73% | |
| 24 | 32% | 70% | Median |
| 25 | 37% | 38% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 37% | 98% | |
| 17 | 34% | 61% | Median |
| 18 | 26% | 28% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 49% | |
| 15 | 20% | 21% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 11% | 98% | |
| 12 | 2% | 87% | |
| 13 | 37% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 49% | |
| 15 | 31% | 31% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 36% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 61% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 70% | 98.9% | Median |
| 7 | 28% | 29% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 19% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 27–34 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 14–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 25% | 98% | |
| 30 | 34% | 73% | Median |
| 31 | 28% | 39% | |
| 32 | 10% | 11% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 37% | 98% | |
| 17 | 34% | 61% | Median |
| 18 | 26% | 28% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 49% | |
| 15 | 20% | 21% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 36% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 59% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 21% | 81% | |
| 7 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–29 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.19%