Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 2–4 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 25.2% 23.7–26.8% 23.3–27.3% 23.0–27.7% 22.3–28.5%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.8% 16.0–20.2% 15.4–20.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.7–16.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–8.0% 5.5–8.2% 5.1–8.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 25 25 24–25 24–25 23–25
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 19 19 19 18–19 17–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 15 15 14–15 14–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 13 13 12–13 12–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 6 6 6 6–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.9%  
24 4% 98.5%  
25 95% 95% Median
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 97% 97% Median
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 95% 97% Median
16 0.2% 2%  
17 1.5% 1.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 95% 96% Median
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 98.7% 99.7% Median
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 96% 100% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 98% 99.7% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 96% 96% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 32 0% 32 31–32 31–32 30–32
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 19 0% 19 19 18–19 17–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 15 15 14–15 14–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5 5 5–7 5–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5 5 5–6 5–7

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.8%  
31 3% 98%  
32 95% 95% Median
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 97% 97% Median
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 95% 97% Median
16 0.2% 2%  
17 1.5% 1.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 96% 99.9% Median
6 0.9% 4%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 95% 99.7% Median
6 3% 5%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations