Opinion Poll by Verian, 11–17 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.4% 23.0–25.9% 22.6–26.4% 22.3–26.7% 21.6–27.5%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 18.0% 16.7–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–7.9% 5.0–8.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.9% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.9% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 23 21–24 21–25 21–26 20–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–16
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–9
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 10% 99.0%  
22 34% 89%  
23 39% 55% Median
24 7% 16%  
25 5% 9%  
26 3% 4%  
27 1.2% 1.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 25% 98%  
17 36% 72% Median
18 13% 36%  
19 23% 23%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 10% 98.7%  
16 41% 88% Median
17 20% 47%  
18 26% 27%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 14% 98%  
13 49% 84% Median
14 8% 34%  
15 8% 26%  
16 18% 18%  
17 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 41% 96%  
7 29% 56% Median
8 2% 26%  
9 24% 24%  
10 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 49% 99.7%  
5 36% 51% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 43% 99.9%  
4 51% 57% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 79% 86% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 55% 55% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 19% 21%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.5% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 86% 87% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 30 0% 28–31 28–32 28–33 27–34
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 0% 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 10% 98%  
29 21% 88%  
30 31% 67% Median
31 30% 37%  
32 3% 7%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.1% 1.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 25% 98%  
17 36% 72% Median
18 13% 36%  
19 23% 23%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 10% 98.7%  
16 41% 88% Median
17 20% 47%  
18 26% 27%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 47% 99.7%  
6 37% 53% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 23% 100%  
5 35% 77%  
6 40% 41% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations