Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 16–18 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.5–27.6% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.8–28.5% | 23.1–29.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.7–20.5% | 17.3–20.9% | 17.0–21.2% | 16.4–21.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–8.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.9–2.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 23 | 26% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 4% | 73% | |
| 25 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 26% | 43% | |
| 27 | 16% | 17% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 33% | 87% | |
| 18 | 34% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 20% | |
| 20 | 16% | 16% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 16% | 100% | |
| 12 | 15% | 84% | |
| 13 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 44% | |
| 15 | 7% | 14% | |
| 16 | 7% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 32% | 91% | |
| 14 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 15 | 33% | 33% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 36% | 91% | |
| 7 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 8 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 98% | |
| 5 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 31% | |
| 7 | 16% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 39% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 61% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 39% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 55% | 61% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 34% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 41% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 49% | 49% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 30–35 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 19% | 88% | |
| 32 | 21% | 69% | |
| 33 | 3% | 48% | Median |
| 34 | 44% | 45% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 33% | 87% | |
| 18 | 34% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 20% | |
| 20 | 16% | 16% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 16% | 100% | |
| 12 | 15% | 84% | |
| 13 | 25% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 44% | |
| 15 | 7% | 14% | |
| 16 | 7% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 33% | 97% | |
| 6 | 6% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 41% | 58% | |
| 8 | 17% | 17% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 75% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 11% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1336
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.55%