Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 16–19 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
25.2% |
23.7–26.9% |
23.2–27.4% |
22.8–27.8% |
22.1–28.6% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.6–21.6% |
18.2–22.0% |
17.8–22.4% |
17.2–23.1% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.5% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.2% |
13.5–18.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.9–13.3% |
10.6–13.7% |
10.3–14.0% |
9.8–14.6% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.1% |
6.8–9.4% |
6.6–9.6% |
6.1–10.2% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.7% |
5.9–7.7% |
5.6–8.0% |
5.4–8.3% |
5.1–8.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
1.9–4.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.7% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
0.0–0.8% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
0.0–0.8% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0–0.3% |
0.0–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0–0.3% |
0.0–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
34% |
98% |
|
24 |
19% |
64% |
Median |
25 |
45% |
45% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
4% |
97% |
|
19 |
23% |
93% |
|
20 |
68% |
70% |
Median |
21 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
100% |
|
13 |
40% |
95% |
|
14 |
34% |
55% |
Median |
15 |
19% |
22% |
|
16 |
2% |
3% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
18% |
96% |
|
12 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
13 |
44% |
46% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
7 |
20% |
33% |
|
8 |
6% |
12% |
|
9 |
6% |
6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
7 |
91% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
4% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
46% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
52% |
54% |
Median |
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
2 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
80% |
98% |
Median |
4 |
18% |
18% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
84% |
98% |
Median |
2 |
15% |
15% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.2% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) |
0 |
31 |
0% |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–32 |
28–33 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) |
0 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–16 |
12–18 |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) |
0 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–10 |
6–10 |
6–10 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
0 |
6 |
0% |
5–7 |
5–7 |
5–7 |
4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
31% |
97% |
|
31 |
22% |
66% |
Median |
32 |
44% |
45% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
4% |
97% |
|
19 |
23% |
93% |
|
20 |
68% |
70% |
Median |
21 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
100% |
|
13 |
40% |
95% |
|
14 |
34% |
55% |
Median |
15 |
19% |
22% |
|
16 |
2% |
3% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
14% |
100% |
|
7 |
53% |
86% |
Median |
8 |
24% |
32% |
|
9 |
2% |
8% |
|
10 |
6% |
6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
46% |
99.4% |
|
6 |
37% |
53% |
Median |
7 |
16% |
16% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1205
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.43%