Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 23.3–25.7% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.1–27.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.3–21.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.6–13.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 11.1–14.0% | 10.7–14.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 6% | 100% | |
| 22 | 13% | 94% | |
| 23 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 39% | |
| 25 | 18% | 21% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 3% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 19% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 81% | |
| 18 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 19 | 32% | 38% | |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 23% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 25% | 76% | |
| 16 | 46% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 37% | 98% | |
| 12 | 26% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 29% | 36% | |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 38% | 93% | |
| 8 | 43% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 13% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 100% | |
| 6 | 62% | 90% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 27% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 53% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 38% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 100% | |
| 3 | 56% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 17% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 82% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 27–32 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 9% | 91% | |
| 29 | 6% | 82% | Median |
| 30 | 47% | 76% | |
| 31 | 25% | 29% | |
| 32 | 4% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 19% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 81% | |
| 18 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 19 | 32% | 38% | |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 23% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 25% | 76% | |
| 16 | 46% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 17% | 100% | |
| 8 | 29% | 83% | |
| 9 | 46% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 59% | 90% | Median |
| 7 | 31% | 31% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2010
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%