Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 27–30 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.5% | 23.3–25.8% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.1–27.1% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.4–21.7% | 19.1–22.0% | 18.8–22.3% | 18.3–22.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.5% | 15.5–17.6% | 15.2–17.9% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.5–18.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–26 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 11% | 98% | |
| 23 | 24% | 87% | |
| 24 | 61% | 63% | Median |
| 25 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 41% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 20 | 42% | 58% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 15% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 26% | 98% | |
| 16 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 17 | 47% | 48% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 68% | 97% | Median |
| 12 | 28% | 29% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 62% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 33% | |
| 8 | 26% | 27% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 30% | 95% | |
| 7 | 26% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 39% | 39% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 71% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 28% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 28–32 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 8% | 90% | |
| 30 | 40% | 83% | |
| 31 | 3% | 43% | Median |
| 32 | 39% | 40% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 41% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 20 | 42% | 58% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 15% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 26% | 98% | |
| 16 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 17 | 47% | 48% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 24% | 100% | |
| 7 | 44% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 32% | |
| 9 | 26% | 26% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 71% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 29% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27–30 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2004
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.31%