Opinion Poll by YouGov, 3–6 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.7–24.2% | 21.4–24.5% | 21.1–24.8% | 20.5–25.5% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.6–17.4% | 14.4–17.7% | 13.9–18.3% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.5–15.6% | 12.1–16.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 16–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 32% | 85% | |
| 22 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 23 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 71% | 98% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 27% | |
| 21 | 12% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 94% | |
| 16 | 64% | 92% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 28% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 14 | 31% | 34% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 88% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 80% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 13% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 76% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–29 | 25–30 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 16–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 13% | 96% | |
| 27 | 28% | 83% | |
| 28 | 52% | 55% | Median |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 71% | 98% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 27% | |
| 21 | 12% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 94% | |
| 16 | 64% | 92% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 28% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 80% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 27% | 85% | |
| 7 | 55% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1908
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%