Opinion Poll by YouGov, 17–20 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.9% | 20.7–23.2% | 20.4–23.5% | 20.1–23.9% | 19.5–24.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.7–20.0% | 17.4–20.4% | 17.1–20.7% | 16.6–21.3% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.7–20.0% | 17.4–20.4% | 17.1–20.7% | 16.6–21.3% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.8–16.0% | 13.5–16.3% | 13.3–16.6% | 12.8–17.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.2–6.6% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.5–7.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–14 | 13–15 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 58% | 99.8% | Median |
| 20 | 6% | 42% | |
| 21 | 12% | 35% | |
| 22 | 21% | 23% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 20% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 15% | 79% | |
| 19 | 62% | 64% | Median |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 29% | 93% | |
| 19 | 3% | 63% | |
| 20 | 59% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 10% | 98% | |
| 14 | 79% | 89% | Median |
| 15 | 6% | 10% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 66% | 99.1% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 33% | |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 100% | |
| 5 | 22% | 89% | |
| 6 | 65% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 35% | 42% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 25–27 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 56% | 97% | Median |
| 26 | 15% | 40% | |
| 27 | 16% | 25% | |
| 28 | 9% | 10% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 29% | 93% | |
| 19 | 3% | 63% | |
| 20 | 59% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 20% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 15% | 79% | |
| 19 | 62% | 64% | Median |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 71% | 98.7% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 28% | |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 43% | |
| 6 | 19% | 19% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–20 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1858
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.07%