Opinion Poll by Democracy Institute, 28–30 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.9–26.2% | 23.6–26.5% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 20.3–22.4% | 20.0–22.7% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.1–16.0% | 13.9–16.3% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.2–13.9% | 11.9–14.2% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 12–13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 90% | |
| 24 | 4% | 87% | |
| 25 | 79% | 83% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 33% | 95% | |
| 21 | 5% | 62% | |
| 22 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 28% | 89% | |
| 15 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 74% | 95% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 21% | |
| 14 | 10% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 62% | 99.9% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 38% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 64% | 99.3% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 35% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 31% | |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 27% | 100% | |
| 5 | 62% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 10% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.2% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 40% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 19% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 26–27 | 25–27 | 25–27 | 24–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 33% | 91% | |
| 27 | 57% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 90% | |
| 24 | 4% | 87% | |
| 25 | 79% | 83% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 28% | 89% | |
| 15 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 44% | |
| 7 | 33% | 36% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 27% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 62% | 72% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Democracy Institute
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2430
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.85%