Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 4–6 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 23.7% 22.3–25.3% 21.9–25.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.8–26.8%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 20.0% 18.6–21.4% 18.3–21.9% 17.9–22.2% 17.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.2–17.0% 12.6–17.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.2–17.0% 12.6–17.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.5–7.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 4.8–8.2%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 22 20–24 20–25 20–25 20–25
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 19 18–22 18–22 17–22 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–8
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 11% 99.9%  
21 12% 88%  
22 40% 77% Median
23 22% 37%  
24 5% 15%  
25 9% 10%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 20% 97%  
19 47% 77% Median
20 5% 30%  
21 14% 25%  
22 11% 11%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 22% 99.3%  
14 44% 78% Median
15 26% 34%  
16 7% 8%  
17 0.5% 1.2%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 5% 99.9%  
13 11% 95%  
14 34% 84% Median
15 12% 50%  
16 30% 38%  
17 6% 8%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 26% 94%  
6 29% 68% Median
7 26% 39%  
8 13% 13%  
9 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 39% 99.1%  
6 43% 60% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 40% 99.9%  
4 49% 60% Median
5 8% 11%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 48% 100%  
4 36% 52% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 59% 99.9% Median
2 41% 41%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 88% 99.8% Median
2 11% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 62% 63% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 20% 20%  
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 29 0% 27–30 26–31 26–31 26–32
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 19 0% 18–22 18–22 17–22 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–6 3–6 3–7 3–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 100%  
26 5% 99.6%  
27 20% 95%  
28 23% 75% Median
29 5% 52%  
30 41% 47%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.2% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 20% 97%  
19 47% 77% Median
20 5% 30%  
21 14% 25%  
22 11% 11%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 22% 99.3%  
14 44% 78% Median
15 26% 34%  
16 7% 8%  
17 0.5% 1.2%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 58% 91%  
5 21% 32% Median
6 8% 11%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 28% 99.9%  
5 35% 72% Median
6 37% 37%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations