Opinion Poll by pollytix, 5–6 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.3–25.1% | 21.9–25.5% | 21.6–25.9% | 21.0–26.6% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.4–21.8% | 18.1–22.1% | 17.5–22.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.6–19.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.7% | 10.0–14.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.9–8.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–13 | 10–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 20 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 21 | 3% | 93% | |
| 22 | 12% | 90% | |
| 23 | 54% | 78% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 24% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 83% | 97% | Median |
| 19 | 6% | 14% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 66% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 31% | |
| 17 | 10% | 22% | |
| 18 | 5% | 12% | |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 65% | 98.8% | Median |
| 12 | 30% | 34% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 21% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 79% | |
| 7 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 98.5% | |
| 6 | 80% | 83% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 79% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 26–32 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 18–19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 14% | 96% | |
| 29 | 3% | 81% | |
| 30 | 64% | 79% | Median |
| 31 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 32 | 13% | 14% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 83% | 97% | Median |
| 19 | 6% | 14% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 66% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 31% | |
| 17 | 10% | 22% | |
| 18 | 5% | 12% | |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 75% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 21% | 100% | |
| 5 | 76% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: pollytix
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–6 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1529
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.19%