Opinion Poll by Forsa, 4–10 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.8–24.0% | 21.6–24.3% | 21.3–24.6% | 20.8–25.1% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 19.0–21.0% | 18.7–21.3% | 18.5–21.6% | 18.0–22.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.1–17.0% | 14.8–17.2% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.1–14.9% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.5–6.8% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–23 | 22–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 21% | 97% | |
| 23 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 82% | 87% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 94% | |
| 16 | 72% | 81% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 24% | 96% | |
| 14 | 14% | 72% | |
| 15 | 57% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 16% | |
| 7 | 9% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 80% | 99.8% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 20% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 34% | 36% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 28–29 | 27–29 | 27–30 | 27–30 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 75% | 90% | Median |
| 29 | 11% | 15% | |
| 30 | 4% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 82% | 87% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 94% | |
| 16 | 72% | 81% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 37% | |
| 6 | 15% | 16% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–10 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2502
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.84%