Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 10–12 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.9–26.7% | 23.5–27.1% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.5–28.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.8–22.4% | 19.4–22.8% | 19.1–23.1% | 18.5–23.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.4–15.8% | 11.9–16.4% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.4–15.8% | 11.9–16.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.2–8.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.3–6.0% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 24–25 | 23–25 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 95% | |
| 24 | 39% | 91% | |
| 25 | 48% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 8% | 97% | |
| 20 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 46% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 31% | |
| 23 | 30% | 30% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 15% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 66% | 84% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 18% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 96% | |
| 13 | 77% | 89% | Median |
| 14 | 7% | 12% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 46% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 46% | 47% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 45% | 97% | |
| 6 | 47% | 52% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 80% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 12% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 42% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.5% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 35% | 35% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–32 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 4% | 97% | |
| 30 | 7% | 93% | |
| 31 | 75% | 87% | Median |
| 32 | 3% | 11% | |
| 33 | 5% | 8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 8% | 97% | |
| 20 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 46% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 31% | |
| 23 | 30% | 30% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 15% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 66% | 84% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 18% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 42% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 50% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 43% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 50% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1579
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%