Opinion Poll by pollytix, 11–12 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.2–24.8% | 20.9–25.1% | 20.2–25.8% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.7–20.3% | 17.4–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.5–21.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.6–19.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 11.8–16.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.9% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 19–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 32% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 4% | 68% | |
| 21 | 12% | 64% | |
| 22 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 23 | 28% | 47% | |
| 24 | 18% | 18% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 15% | 89% | |
| 18 | 42% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 32% | |
| 20 | 8% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 17% | 94% | |
| 16 | 20% | 77% | |
| 17 | 52% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 5% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 23% | 96% | |
| 13 | 27% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 39% | 46% | |
| 15 | 7% | 8% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 20% | 96% | |
| 6 | 60% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 15% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 17% | 95% | |
| 6 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 36% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 31% | 98% | |
| 5 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 38% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 63% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 31% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 5% | 68% | |
| 27 | 4% | 63% | |
| 28 | 26% | 60% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 34% | |
| 30 | 17% | 19% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 15% | 89% | |
| 18 | 42% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 32% | |
| 20 | 8% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 17% | 94% | |
| 16 | 20% | 77% | |
| 17 | 52% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 5% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 31% | 98% | |
| 6 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 37% | 38% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 63% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 25% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: pollytix
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–12 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1501
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.04%