Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–17 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.2–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.8–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.0–16.1% | 13.8–16.4% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.1–14.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 12% | 96% | |
| 23 | 13% | 83% | |
| 24 | 67% | 71% | Median |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 19 | 71% | 99.1% | Median |
| 20 | 6% | 28% | |
| 21 | 12% | 22% | |
| 22 | 5% | 10% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 9% | 90% | |
| 15 | 72% | 81% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 18% | 96% | |
| 13 | 8% | 79% | |
| 14 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 86% | 98% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 100% | |
| 6 | 17% | 88% | |
| 7 | 71% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 25% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 75% | 99.4% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 24% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–31 | 26–33 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 9% | 97% | |
| 28 | 5% | 88% | |
| 29 | 4% | 84% | |
| 30 | 13% | 80% | |
| 31 | 65% | 67% | Median |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 19 | 71% | 99.1% | Median |
| 20 | 6% | 28% | |
| 21 | 12% | 22% | |
| 22 | 5% | 10% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 9% | 90% | |
| 15 | 72% | 81% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 75% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 23% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 35% | |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2010
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.86%