Opinion Poll by GMS, 16–19 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.4–26.8% 22.0–27.3% 21.2–28.1%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 26 21–26 21–26 21–26 20–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 17–22 17–22 17–22 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–14 13–15 12–15 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–17
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 7 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 14% 98%  
22 1.1% 84%  
23 23% 83%  
24 4% 60%  
25 2% 56%  
26 53% 54% Median
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.2% 100%  
17 52% 98.8% Median
18 4% 47%  
19 22% 43%  
20 7% 21%  
21 0.5% 14%  
22 14% 14%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 4% 100%  
13 13% 96%  
14 78% 83% Median
15 4% 6%  
16 0.2% 1.1%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.9%  
12 19% 91%  
13 51% 72% Median
14 19% 21%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0% 0.9%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 65% 99.9% Median
6 17% 34%  
7 14% 18%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 18% 96%  
6 17% 78%  
7 61% 62% Median
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 64% 99.4% Median
4 33% 36%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 70% 95% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 79% 93% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 86% 89% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 93% 95% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 89% 90% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) 0 31 0% 27–32 27–32 27–33 27–36
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 0% 17–22 17–22 17–22 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–14 13–15 12–15 12–17
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–7

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 15% 99.9%  
28 13% 85%  
29 0.7% 73%  
30 5% 72%  
31 55% 67% Median
32 9% 12%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.1% 2%  
35 0% 2%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.2% 100%  
17 52% 98.8% Median
18 4% 47%  
19 22% 43%  
20 7% 21%  
21 0.5% 14%  
22 14% 14%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 4% 100%  
13 13% 96%  
14 78% 83% Median
15 4% 6%  
16 0.2% 1.1%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 76% 97% Median
7 12% 21%  
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 66% 98.5% Median
5 30% 33%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations