Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 9–20 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.2–27.6% | 22.8–28.0% | 22.0–28.9% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.1–22.1% | 17.7–22.5% | 17.0–23.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 13.2–15.9% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.7% | 11.9–17.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.7–14.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.1–9.3% | 5.7–9.8% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–9.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–29 | 22–29 | 21–29 | 20–29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 8% | 96% | |
| 23 | 35% | 88% | |
| 24 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 25 | 17% | 43% | |
| 26 | 13% | 25% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 29 | 11% | 11% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 13% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 40% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 46% | |
| 20 | 34% | 36% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 25% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 45% | 49% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 18% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 27% | 81% | |
| 12 | 33% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 21% | |
| 14 | 7% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 38% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 49% | 61% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 13% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 39% | 96% | |
| 7 | 50% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 13% | |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 36% | 94% | |
| 5 | 40% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 18% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 27% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 26–36 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 11% | 93% | |
| 31 | 40% | 83% | Median |
| 32 | 23% | 43% | |
| 33 | 5% | 20% | |
| 34 | 3% | 15% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 36 | 11% | 11% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 13% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 40% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 46% | |
| 20 | 34% | 36% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 25% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 45% | 49% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 50% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 39% | 50% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 10% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 30% | 93% | |
| 6 | 46% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 18% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–20 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1064
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 6.13%