Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 19–20 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.7–23.6% | 20.3–24.0% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.3–25.1% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.2–24.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.8–17.4% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.1–18.1% | 13.6–18.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.3–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.3–10.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.4–7.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.6% | 3.5–5.8% | 3.2–6.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 18–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 62% | 95% | Median |
| 22 | 27% | 33% | |
| 23 | 4% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 19 | 58% | 98% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 40% | |
| 21 | 27% | 30% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 84% | 93% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 6% | 97% | |
| 13 | 31% | 91% | |
| 14 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 72% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 86% | 98.8% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 76% | |
| 5 | 60% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 26% | 89% | |
| 5 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 26 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 34% | |
| 28 | 12% | 15% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 19 | 58% | 98% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 40% | |
| 21 | 27% | 30% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 84% | 93% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 25% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 11% | 74% | |
| 6 | 62% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 21% | 84% | |
| 6 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1349
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.95%