Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 10–14 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.7–23.7% | 20.2–24.2% | 19.9–24.6% | 19.2–25.4% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.1–24.0% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.0–25.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.3–17.8% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.4–18.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.8–13.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.8% | 7.9–12.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 21 | 20–21 | 20–22 | 19–23 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–24 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 88% | 90% | Median |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 40% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 59% | |
| 21 | 5% | 57% | |
| 22 | 48% | 52% | Median |
| 23 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 51% | 99.2% | Median |
| 15 | 2% | 48% | |
| 16 | 45% | 46% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 49% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 48% | 50% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 50% | 99.0% | Median |
| 10 | 44% | 49% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 49% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 47% | 47% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 95% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 5% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 41% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 27–28 | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–24 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 3–4 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 2% | 91% | Median |
| 28 | 88% | 89% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 40% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 59% | |
| 21 | 5% | 57% | |
| 22 | 48% | 52% | Median |
| 23 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 51% | 99.2% | Median |
| 15 | 2% | 48% | |
| 16 | 45% | 46% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 7% | 96% | |
| 6 | 89% | 90% | Median |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 90% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): BILD
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.16%