Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 29–30 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 25.1% 23.3–26.9% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–27.9% 21.6–28.8%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 18.9–23.3% 18.5–23.7% 17.8–24.6%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.7% 16.1–20.2% 15.7–20.6% 15.0–21.5%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.5%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 70% 90% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 65% 99.9% Median
4 34% 35%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 2%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 44%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 71% 92% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 2%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations