Independents (GUE/NGL)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2.8% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.5% |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.4% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.7% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.8–4.1% |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
3.2% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.4–4.4% | 2.1–4.8% |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1.8% | 1.5–2.3% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1.7% | 1.4–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
1.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.3% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.5% |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.7% |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
2.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.4% |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.1% |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.4% |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
3.3% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.3% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.5% |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
3.0% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.1% |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.7% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.9% |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.9% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.2% |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents (GUE/NGL).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 37% | 99.2% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 50% | 63% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 12% | 12% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents (GUE/NGL).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |