Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 31 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 25.0% 23.6–26.5% 23.2–27.0% 22.8–27.3% 22.2–28.1%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 21.0% 19.7–22.5% 19.3–22.9% 19.0–23.2% 18.4–23.9%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.7%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 74% 98.7% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 91% 100% Median
4 8% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 74% 99.5% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations