Opinion Poll by Red C for Business Post, 5–10 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Independents (*) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 5 5 5 4–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 99.5% 99.5% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 71% 99.8% Median
4 21% 28%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 51% 99.9% Median
4 48% 49%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 22%  
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 28%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 99.5% 99.5% Median
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 43% 100% Median
4 56% 57%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 45%  
2 12% 12%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations