Opinion Poll by Opinions for The Sunday Times, 13–19 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 19% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 81% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 45% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 77% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 18% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 50% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinions
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 13–19 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.25%