Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 4 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.8% | 24.3–27.3% | 23.9–27.7% | 23.5–28.1% | 22.9–28.9% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.5–20.2% | 17.2–20.6% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.3–21.6% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.5–20.2% | 17.2–20.6% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.3–21.6% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.8% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.6% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.7% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.1–4.6% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.5% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 100% | |
| 4 | 77% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 36% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 64% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 6% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 4 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1413
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.04%