Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 1–2 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 24.7–27.3% 24.3–27.7% 24.0–28.0% 23.4–28.7%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.6% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.4%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 62% 96% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 69% 100% Median
4 31% 31%  
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 26%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 72% 72% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–2 0–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 62% 97% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 95% 97% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations