Opinion Poll by Opinions for The Sunday Times, 7–13 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 99.4% | 99.4% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 91% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 5% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 99.4% | 99.4% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinions
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.55%