Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 21–22 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.6–23.4% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.3–24.9% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.4–22.9% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.4–22.9% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.4% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.4% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.2% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.1% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 18% | 100% | |
| 4 | 80% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 20% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 43% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 100% | |
| 4 | 83% | 84% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 21–22 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1420
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.54%