Opinion Poll by Ipsos B&A for Irish Times, 20–23 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.0% | 18.8–23.4% | 18.1–24.2% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.6–21.6% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.8–22.4% | 17.2–23.1% |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.4% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 79% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 49% | |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 23% | 100% | |
| 4 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 38% | 38% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 19% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 34% | 34% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 49% | 49% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 36% | 37% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 23% | 100% | |
| 4 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 38% | 38% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 49% | 52% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos B&A
- Commissioner(s): Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.37%