Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 10–11 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 23.8% | 22.3–25.4% | 21.8–25.9% | 21.5–26.3% | 20.8–27.1% |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.3% | 20.8–23.9% | 20.4–24.4% | 20.0–24.8% | 19.3–25.5% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 19.3% | 17.9–20.9% | 17.5–21.3% | 17.2–21.7% | 16.5–22.4% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.6% | 6.0–8.9% | 5.6–9.4% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.2–6.7% | 3.8–7.2% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.5–6.7% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.9–5.1% | 2.6–5.5% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 54% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 42% | 42% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 97% | |
| 5 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 52% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 43% | 44% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 97% | |
| 5 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 98.5% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ireland Thinks
- Commissioner(s): Sunday Independent
- Fieldwork period: 10–11 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1206
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.18%