Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 31 January–1 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 24.0% 22.7–25.4% 22.3–25.8% 22.0–26.2% 21.3–26.9%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.5–22.7%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.7%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.7%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.6–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 17% 98.6%  
5 81% 81% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 79% 90% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 28% 100%  
4 60% 72% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 62% 91% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 17% 98.6%  
5 81% 82% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 28% 100%  
4 60% 72% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 70% 99.6% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations