Opinion Poll by Red C for Business Post, 26 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3–4 2–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 35% 98%  
5 63% 63% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 15% 97%  
5 76% 82% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 96% 99.3% Median
4 2% 3%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 20%  
2 13% 13%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3–4 2–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 30% 98%  
5 66% 68% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 96% 99.3% Median
4 2% 3%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 71% 85% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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