Opinion Poll by Red C for Business Post, 18–23 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 8% 96%  
5 81% 89% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 71% 100% Median
4 28% 29%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 36% 100%  
4 46% 64% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 46% 64% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 55% 100% Median
4 43% 45%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 36% 100%  
4 46% 64% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 48% 66% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations