Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 1–2 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 23.0% 21.7–24.4% 21.3–24.8% 21.0–25.1% 20.4–25.7%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 20.1–24.1% 19.5–24.7%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.2–22.0% 17.6–22.7%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.5%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.7%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.7%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 53% 96% Median
5 43% 43%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 84% 95% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 65% 100% Median
4 14% 35%  
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 22% 82%  
2 60% 60% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 34% 98% Median
5 63% 64%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 65% 100% Median
4 14% 35%  
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 27% 92%  
2 64% 65% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations