Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 30 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 21.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Independents (*) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.1% 2.0–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.7%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.9%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–3
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 79% 100% Median
4 20% 21%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 11% 89%  
5 79% 79% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 73% 86% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 9% 96%  
2 81% 88% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 1–3 0–4
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 76% 100% Median
4 18% 24%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 11% 89%  
5 79% 79% Median
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 3% 98.6%  
2 75% 96% Median
3 20% 21%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations