Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 1 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.5% 18.3–21.9% 17.9–22.3% 17.3–23.0%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.5% 18.3–21.9% 17.9–22.3% 17.3–23.0%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.5% 18.3–21.9% 17.9–22.3% 17.3–23.0%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.7–9.6% 6.3–10.2%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.2%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.1%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 95% 100% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 24% 99.1%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 45% 99.7%  
4 13% 54% Median
5 42% 42%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 46% 93% Median
2 45% 46%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 35% 35%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 24% 99.1%  
5 75% 75% Median
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 74% 100% Median
4 25% 26%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 47% 95% Median
2 47% 48%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations