Opinion Poll by RED C for Business Post, 4–9 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.6% 15.1–21.4%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aontú (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 34% 99.6%  
4 32% 65% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 22% 99.7%  
4 60% 77% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 78% 98.8% Median
4 21% 21%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 43%  
2 12% 12%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 85% 86% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 75% 75% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 13% 99.9%  
4 61% 87% Median
5 26% 27%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 22% 99.7%  
4 60% 77% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 51%  
2 17% 17%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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