Opinion Poll by Ireland Thinks for Sunday Independent, 2–3 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.1% 18.4–23.8%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.1% 18.4–23.8%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.0–22.1% 17.5–22.8%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.1% 2.1–4.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.4%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.6%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 9% 93%  
5 84% 84% Median
6 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 85% 100% Median
4 9% 15%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 87% 100% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 66% 96% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.5% Median
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 58% 58% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 9% 93%  
5 84% 84% Median
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 87% 100% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 13% 98%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations