Opinion Poll by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, 13–15 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.4–20.0% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.2% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.4–4.4% | 2.1–4.8% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.6% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 54% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independents (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 54% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independents (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 77% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 23% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos B&A
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.57%