Opinion Poll by RED C for Business Post, 1–30 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.8–25.5%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Independents (*) 0.0% 4.2% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 69% 91% Median
5 19% 21%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.7%  
3 80% 99.4% Median
4 19% 19%  
5 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.1% 100%  
3 94% 98.9% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 11% 94%  
2 82% 83% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.7%  
3 73% 99.4% Median
4 26% 27%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.1% 100%  
3 94% 98.9% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 8% 97%  
2 87% 89% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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