Opinion Poll by RED C for Business Post, 21 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3–4 2–4
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Labour Party (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Aontú (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 6% 98.6%  
5 92% 92% Median
6 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.3% 100%  
3 96% 98.7% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 45% 67% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 76% 94% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 2 0% 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.3% 100%  
3 96% 98.7% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 26% 99.8%  
3 64% 74% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 45% 68% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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