Opinion Poll by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, 3 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 23.8% | 22.3–25.4% | 21.9–25.8% | 21.5–26.2% | 20.8–27.0% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.5–20.3% | 17.1–20.7% | 16.8–21.1% | 16.1–21.8% |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.8% | 16.5–19.3% | 16.1–19.7% | 15.8–20.0% | 15.2–20.7% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.2–8.9% |
| Independents (*) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.2–5.4% | 2.9–5.9% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.5% |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.4% |
| Independents (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Independents (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independent Ireland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Independents (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Independents (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 91% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 37% | 39% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 27% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 49% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 26% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independent Ireland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 42% | 46% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 27% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos B&A
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 3 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1248
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.87%