Opinion Poll by RED C for Business Post, 20–25 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 24.0% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Fine Gael (EPP) 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Aontú (*) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Independent Ireland (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Independents (*) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
Independents (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Fianna Fáil (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aontú (*) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independent Ireland (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Independents (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 13% 98.9%  
5 81% 86% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 82% 99.4% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.5% 100%  
2 17% 98.5%  
3 81% 81% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 13% 86%  
2 73% 74% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Aontú (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 93% 93% Median
2 0% 0%  

Independent Ireland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Ireland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Independents (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 82% 99.4% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil (RE) – Independent Ireland (RE) – Independents (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 14% 99.7%  
3 70% 86% Median
4 15% 16%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats (S&D) – Labour Party (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 15% 93%  
2 77% 78% Median
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations